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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally

Rancho San Manuel Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 04021000700 · Pinal, AZ · pop 3,535 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi

Census tract 04021000700 covers part of the Rancho San Manuel area of San Manuel, AZ, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 3,535 residents. The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1/10.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5% Stable renters 13% Owners 82%
Tract context
Occupied units1,540
Renter share18.2%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate21.4%
Median income$48,333

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Rancho San Manuel
Moderate
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In San Manuel
Moderate
Within county
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#23 of 95 tracts In Pinal
High
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#397 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across San Manuel and the region

Centroid at 32.6091, -110.6415 · click any tract to drill in

Why Rancho San Manuel scores 4.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from San Manuel
4.7
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
21.4% poverty · this tract
5.3
Supply constraint
$740 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from San Manuel
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from San Manuel
4.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from San Manuel
5.7

How Rancho San Manuel compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Rancho San Manuel risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.64.6This tracttract 000700San Manuel: 3.23.2San Manuelparent cityCounty: 3.83.8Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 67

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Rancho San Manuel

roughly one in four of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well below the Pinal County average of 37.6%. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.

16% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The poverty rate is 21%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 2.5/10.

It sits 0.8 points above the Pinal County average of 3.8. That is riskier than roughly 53% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

Average gross rent is $740, close to the San Manuel average. Annual rent works out to 18% of average household income of $48,333.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 04021000700

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04021000700?

Census tract 04021000700 in the Rancho San Manuel neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04021000700?

Median gross rent is $740/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04021000700?

21.4% of residents in tract 04021000700 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,535.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04021000700?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 75th, household 68th, minority 72th, housing 35th.
Q5

Is tract 04021000700 considered part of Rancho San Manuel?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04021000700 fall within Rancho San Manuel (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 04021000700 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.4% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 04021000700 compare to San Manuel overall?

Tract 04021000700 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of San Manuel at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from San Manuel; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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