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Neighborhood · San Manuel, AZ

Rancho San Manuel Eviction Risk: Moderate

1 census tracts · pop 3,535 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 4.6/10 · range 4.6–4.6

Rancho San Manuel maps to a single census tract in San Manuel, AZ, population 3,535. Scored across those inputs it reaches 4.6/10, placing it in the Moderate tier. The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 1/10.

27% of renters spend 30% or more of household income on rent. The severe-burden share is 16%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay.

The poverty rate is 21%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. On the softer side is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.5/10.

18.2% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. Only 18% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Against average income of $48,333, annual rent is only 18%, a wide affordability cushion.

Average gross rent runs $740, close to the San Manuel average.

One tract means one number: 4.6/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
4.6
Moderate
1 tracts · population-weighted
Rancho San Manuel vs San Manuel How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
26.8% -4%
San Manuel: 28.0%
Average gross rent
$740 +5%
San Manuel: $708
Average HH income
$48,333 +0%
San Manuel: $48,333
Poverty rate
21.4% +0%
San Manuel: 21.4%
Renter share
18.2% +13%
San Manuel: 16.1%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Rancho San Manuel and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 1 tracts span score 4.6–4.6

Why Rancho San Manuel scores 4.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 2.2–2.2 across tracts
2.2
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 4.1–4.1 across tracts
4.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 4.7–4.7 across tracts
4.7
Rent control risk
27% of income on rent · Range 3.2–3.2 across tracts
3.2
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 2.5–2.5 across tracts
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
18% renter households · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts
4.3
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 5.7–5.7 across tracts
5.7
Economic stress
21.4% below poverty line · Range 5.3–5.3 across tracts
5.3
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–1.0 across tracts
1.0
Risk score comparison

Rancho San Manuel vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Rancho San Manuel score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Rancho San Manuel: 4.64.6Rancho San ManuelNeighborhoodParent city: 3.23.2Parent cityhost cityState: 3.63.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

1 tracts in Rancho San Manuel

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
04021000700 4.6 3,535 27% $740
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 67

Pop-weighted across 1 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 75%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 68%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 72%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 35%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Rancho San Manuel

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Rancho San Manuel

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Rancho San Manuel?

Rancho San Manuel scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier) across 1 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Rancho San Manuel compare to San Manuel overall?

Rancho San Manuel scores 1.4 points higher than San Manuel overall (3.2/10). Renters spend 27% of income on rent vs 28% citywide. Average rent: $740 vs $708.
Q3

What is the average rent in Rancho San Manuel?

Average gross rent in Rancho San Manuel is $740/month (pop-weighted across 1 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 27% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Rancho San Manuel residents are renters?

18% of Rancho San Manuel households are renter-occupied (vs 16% in San Manuel). The neighborhood has 3,535 residents.
Q5

Is Rancho San Manuel a high social-vulnerability area?

Rancho San Manuel sits in the 67th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

How safe is Rancho San Manuel for landlords?

Rancho San Manuel carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (4.6/10). Pop-weighted across 1 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to San Manuel as a whole (3.2/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q7

What is the demographic breakdown of Rancho San Manuel?

Rancho San Manuel has 3,269 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (48.1%), White (non-Hispanic) (45.9%), Other / Multiracial (6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
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Other neighborhoods near Rancho San Manuel

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