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Neighborhood · Salinas, CA

Natividad Eviction Risk: High

5 census tracts · pop 28,761 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 8.6/10 · range 7.6–9.3

Natividad is a 5-tract neighborhood of Salinas, CA, population 28,761. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 8.6/10, in the High tier. Cost burden runs 61% against 32.2% citywide, putting Natividad 28.7% over its own city.

Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 9.3/10. 25.5% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.

On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.8/10. Scores across the 5 constituent tracts range from 7.6 to 9.3. A 1.7-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. SNAP participation is 29.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 18%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.3/10. That places it #3 of 9 neighborhoods in Salinas.

The closest comparables inside the same city are Alisal and Sunset. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $2,014, close to the Salinas average.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.7 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
8.6
High
5 tracts · population-weighted
Natividad vs Salinas How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
60.9% +89%
Salinas: 32.2%
Average gross rent
$2,014 +1%
Salinas: $1,991
Average HH income
$86,102 -3%
Salinas: $89,150
Poverty rate
18.2% +28%
Salinas: 14.3%
Renter share
56.0% +6%
Salinas: 53.0%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Natividad and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 5 tracts span score 7.6–9.3

Why Natividad scores 8.6

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts
6.8
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.1–7.1 across tracts
7.1
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 8.2–8.2 across tracts
8.2
Rent control risk
61% of income on rent · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts
7.3
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 6.8–6.8 across tracts
6.8
Tenant organizing strength
56% renter households · Range 9.3–9.3 across tracts
9.3
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.0–7.0 across tracts
7.0
Economic stress
18.2% below poverty line · Range 3.7–6.0 across tracts
4.6
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.1–2.5 across tracts
1.8
Risk score comparison

Natividad vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Natividad score vs. parent city, state, U.S.Natividad: 8.68.6NatividadNeighborhoodParent city: 7.97.9Parent cityhost cityState: 7.67.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 5.15.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Natividad?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution
0246810
Spread of 1.7 points from 7.6 to 9.3. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.
Tracts as heat grid
Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.
Census tracts

5 tracts in Natividad

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
06053000400 9.3 8,338 62% $1,951
06053000502 9.3 4,974 77% $1,804
06053010607 8.8 4,475 64% $1,932
06053000200 7.8 7,390 56% $2,246
06053010608 7.6 3,584 42% $2,078
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 82

Pop-weighted across 5 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 81%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 65%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 92%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 74%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Natividad

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Natividad

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Natividad?

Natividad scores 8.6/10 (High tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Natividad compare to Salinas overall?

Natividad scores 0.7 points higher than Salinas overall (7.9/10). Renters spend 61% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,014 vs $1,991.
Q3

What is the average rent in Natividad?

Average gross rent in Natividad is $2,014/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Natividad residents are renters?

56% of Natividad households are renter-occupied (vs 53% in Salinas). The neighborhood has 28,761 residents.
Q5

Is Natividad a high social-vulnerability area?

Natividad sits in the 82nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Natividad have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Natividad is census tract 06053000400 (score 9.3/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 7.6 to 9.3, a spread of 1.7 points.
Q7

How safe is Natividad for landlords?

Natividad carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (8.6/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Salinas as a whole (7.9/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Natividad?

Natividad has 28,404 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (86.4%), White (non-Hispanic) (8.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (3.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Natividad

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside Salinas

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Natividad.

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