5 census tracts · pop 28,761 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 8.6/10
· range 7.6–9.3
Natividad is a 5-tract neighborhood of Salinas, CA, population 28,761. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 8.6/10, in the High tier. Cost burden runs 61% against 32.2% citywide, putting Natividad 28.7% over its own city.
Severe burden reaches 31%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. The strongest single driver of the headline number is tenant-organizing strength at 9.3/10. 25.5% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt.
On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.8/10. Scores across the 5 constituent tracts range from 7.6 to 9.3. A 1.7-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. SNAP participation is 29.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally.
The poverty rate is 18%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 7.3/10. That places it #3 of 9 neighborhoods in Salinas.
The closest comparables inside the same city are Alisal and Sunset. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.4/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.
Average gross rent runs $2,014, close to the Salinas average.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.7 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
8.6
High
5 tracts · population-weighted
Natividad vs SalinasHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority92%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport74%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Natividad
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
26.9%Housing insecurity
12.8%Utility shutoff threat
33.3%Food insecurity
28.4%SNAP enrollment
24.6%No health insurance
36.1%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Natividad
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Natividad?
Natividad scores 8.6/10 (High tier) across 5 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Natividad compare to Salinas overall?
Natividad scores 0.7 points higher than Salinas overall (7.9/10). Renters spend 61% of income on rent vs 32% citywide. Average rent: $2,014 vs $1,991.
Q3
What is the average rent in Natividad?
Average gross rent in Natividad is $2,014/month (pop-weighted across 5 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Natividad residents are renters?
56% of Natividad households are renter-occupied (vs 53% in Salinas). The neighborhood has 28,761 residents.
Q5
Is Natividad a high social-vulnerability area?
Natividad sits in the 82nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Natividad have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Natividad is census tract 06053000400 (score 9.3/10). Across the 5 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 7.6 to 9.3, a spread of 1.7 points.
Q7
How safe is Natividad for landlords?
Natividad carries a high-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (8.6/10). Pop-weighted across 5 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Salinas as a whole (7.9/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Natividad?
Natividad has 28,404 residents. Top groups: Hispanic / Latino (86.4%), White (non-Hispanic) (8.1%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (3.3%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
