West 9th Street Commercial Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

This is a renter market: 77% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. The poverty rate is 29%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 18% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

The clearest offset is supply constraint, at 2.4/10. On the high side is economic stress at 7.2/10.

The filing record is not thin: 1,263 evictions logged in this tract. The worst year on record was 2010, when filings touched 23.6% of renter households. On the softer side is rent-regulation exposure, at 3/10.

Average gross rent is $1,327, 8% above the Wilmington average of $1,224. Recent filings have not receded much: 16.7% in 2018 against a 23.6% peak. Among the 20 mapped neighborhoods of Wilmington, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third.

The closest comparables inside the same city are 11th St. Bridge and West Hill. Social vulnerability runs high at 7.9/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.8/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.