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Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally

Ventura Bay Eviction Risk: Moderate , Brandon

Tract 12057013706 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 3,048 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi

Census tract 12057013706 covers part of the Ventura Bay area of Riverview, FL, and scores 5.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,048. 39% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 52% Stable renters 45% Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units1,388
Renter share96.3%
SVI overall0.41
Poverty rate31.0%
Median income$51,536

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Ventura Bay
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 16 tracts In Brandon
Very High
Within county
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#34 of 333 tracts In Hillsborough
Very High
Within state
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#495 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Brandon and the region

Centroid at 27.8965, -82.3436 · click any tract to drill in

Why Ventura Bay scores 5.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Brandon
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
31.0% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$1,629 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brandon
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brandon
5.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brandon
6.0

How Ventura Bay compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Ventura Bay risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.4This tracttract 0137064.3Brandonparent city4.2Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 41

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 159Total filings 2020-21
  • 2.2Avg monthly (observed)
  • 2.8Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.79×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-01-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Ventura Bay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Ventura Bay

96% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The main counterweight is eviction-process difficulty at 1.1/10.

Annualized rent equals 38% of average household income of $51,536, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Running hot, economic stress reads 7.8/10.

Against the Hillsborough County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points. Average gross rent is $1,629, 19% below the Riverview average. Adults with no health insurance runs 19.6% against 11.3% nationally.

That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 4.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 54% of renters.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 12057013706

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057013706?

Census tract 12057013706 in the Ventura Bay neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12057013706?

Median gross rent is $1,629/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12057013706?

31.0% of residents in tract 12057013706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,048.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12057013706?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 41th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 9th, minority 78th, housing 28th.
Q5

Is tract 12057013706 considered part of Ventura Bay?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057013706 fall within Ventura Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6

Did eviction filings in tract 12057013706 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.79× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q7

How does tract 12057013706 compare to Brandon overall?

Tract 12057013706 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Brandon at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brandon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Brandon

Top eight tracts in Brandon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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