2 census tracts · pop 9,198 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.1/10
· range 5–5.4
Ventura Bay is a 2-tract neighborhood of Brandon, FL, population 9,198. That produces an Eviction Risk Score of 5.1/10, Moderate tier. Against a Brandon baseline of 33.4%, about half of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
26% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.4/10.
This is a renter market: 72% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Running hot is tenant-organizing strength at 7.7/10. The poverty rate is 22%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.
The filing record is not thin: 239 evictions logged in this tract. On the high side is rent-regulation exposure at 7.5/10. Filing activity peaked in 2010 at 4.2% of renter households.
The most recent observed rate, 2.3% in 2016, is well off that peak. Among the 11 mapped neighborhoods of Brandon, it ranks #3 by risk, the upper third. The closest comparables inside the same city are Mariposa and Limona.
Its 2 tracts score within 0.4 points of one another, so the area figure travels well to individual addresses. Average gross rent runs $1,750, close to the Brandon average.
With little internal variation, 5.1/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
2 tracts · population-weighted
Ventura Bay vs BrandonHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority77%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport15%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Ventura Bay
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
239Total filings (sum)
3.44%Avg annual filing rate
4.2%Peak year (2010)
2.26%Latest filed (2016)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
560Total filings 2020-21
4.4Avg monthly observed
4.6Pre-pandemic baseline
0.92×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA).
Frequently asked
About Ventura Bay
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Ventura Bay?
Ventura Bay scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Ventura Bay compare to Brandon overall?
Ventura Bay scores 0.8 points higher than Brandon overall (4.3/10). Renters spend 51% of income on rent vs 33% citywide. Average rent: $1,750 vs $1,784.
Q3
What is the average rent in Ventura Bay?
Average gross rent in Ventura Bay is $1,750/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Ventura Bay residents are renters?
72% of Ventura Bay households are renter-occupied (vs 44% in Brandon). The neighborhood has 9,198 residents.
Q5
Is Ventura Bay a high social-vulnerability area?
Ventura Bay sits in the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (less vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Ventura Bay have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Ventura Bay is census tract 12057013706 (score 5.4/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5 to 5.4, a spread of 0.4 points.
Q7
How safe is Ventura Bay for landlords?
Ventura Bay carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.1/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Brandon as a whole (4.3/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Ventura Bay?
Ventura Bay has 9,071 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (39.2%), Hispanic / Latino (27.4%), Black (non-Hispanic) (17.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
