Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #32,842 of 84,120 nationally
Ventura Bay Eviction Risk: Moderate , Brandon
Tract 12057013319 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 6,150 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 5/10, tract 12057013319 in the Ventura Bay area of Brandon, FL reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.7/10.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 40%
Tract context
Occupied units2,816
Renter share60.2%
SVI overall0.43
Poverty rate17.8%
Median income$73,561
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
74
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
80
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brandon and the region
Centroid at 27.9067, -82.3372 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ventura Bay scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brandon
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
17.8% poverty · this tract
4.5
Supply constraint
$1,810 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brandon
7.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brandon
8.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brandon
6.6
How Ventura Bay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 43
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 62%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 9%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 239Total filings over 11 yrs
- 3.44%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.2%Peak (2010)
- 39Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 680% over the past 11 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 401Total filings 2020-21
- 5.5Avg monthly (observed)
- 5.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.99×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ventura Bay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ventura Bay
On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. 19% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.5/10. Court records carry 239 eviction filings across 11 observed years.
Against the Hillsborough County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points. The worst year on record was 2010, when 4.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 3.4% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #32,842 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 4.9/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 0.9 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12057013319
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057013319?
Census tract 12057013319 in the Ventura Bay neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12057013319?
Median gross rent is $1,810/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12057013319?
17.8% of residents in tract 12057013319 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,150.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12057013319?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 43th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 62th, household 56th, minority 76th, housing 9th.
Q5
Is tract 12057013319 considered part of Ventura Bay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057013319 fall within Ventura Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12057013319?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 239 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 12057013319 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.44% of renter households, peaking at 4.2% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12057013319 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.99× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12057013319 compare to Brandon overall?
Tract 12057013319 scores 5/10, higher than the parent city of Brandon at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brandon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Brandon
Top eight tracts in Brandon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Sixmile Creek
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Allendale
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Sterling Ranch
5.2
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Mariposa
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Limona
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Limona
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Allendale
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Alexandria Place
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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