Within neighborhood
71
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,159 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000203 · Manatee, FL · pop 1,864 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
For landlords sizing up the Casa Loma area of Bayshore Gardens, census tract 12081000203 carries a moderate eviction-risk score of 5.1/10. On the national scale it ranks #47,813 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
About 37% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,706 a month against an average household income of $35,000 a year, roughly 58% of income at the averages. Renters make up 25% of occupied homes.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units914
Renter share24.5%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate16.7%
Median income$35,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
87
th percentile
High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4547, -82.5493 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
16.7% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,706 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.3
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 97%Socioeconomic
- 66%Household composition
- 20%Racial/ethnic minority
- 93%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 9.2/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Bayshore Gardens, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Manatee County average of 5.0 and in line with the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 91st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000203
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000203?
Census tract 12081000203 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000203?
Median gross rent is $1,706/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000203?
16.7% of residents in tract 12081000203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,864.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000203?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 66th, minority 20th, housing 93th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000203 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000203 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How does tract 12081000203 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000203 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens
Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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