Within neighborhood
57
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens
Tract 12081000106 · Manatee, FL · pop 5,088 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 12081000106 in the Casa Loma area of West Samoset, FL reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 5,088 residents. 30% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well under the Manatee County average of 53.5%.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13%
Stable renters 30%
Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,427
Renter share42.8%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate16.8%
Median income$76,477
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
76
th percentile
High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region
Centroid at 27.4712, -82.5544 · click any tract to drill in
Why Casa Loma scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
16.8% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,337 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.3
How Casa Loma compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 90
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 94%Socioeconomic
- 87%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 65%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 317Total filings over 4 yrs
- 13.55%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.6%Peak (2003)
- 79Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 4 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma
Adults with no health insurance runs 35.0% against 11.3% nationally. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.2/10.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.2/10. On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Disability prevalence runs 44.8% against 31.5% nationally.
The severe-burden share is 14%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against the Manatee County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 317 filings here across 4 tracked years.
Filings peaked in 2003 at 18.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 13.5% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Social vulnerability reads 9.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12081000106
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000106?
Census tract 12081000106 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12081000106?
Median gross rent is $1,337/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 30% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000106?
16.8% of residents in tract 12081000106 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,088.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000106?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 87th, minority 79th, housing 65th.
Q5
Is tract 12081000106 considered part of Casa Loma?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000106 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12081000106?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 317 eviction filings across 4 validated years in tract 12081000106 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.55% of renter households, peaking at 18.6% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12081000106 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?
Tract 12081000106 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens
Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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