Neighborhood · Bayshore Gardens, FL

Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate

8 census tracts · pop 28,460 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 5.2/10 · range 4.5–5.8

Casa Loma takes in 8 census tracts of Bayshore Gardens, FL, population 28,460. The Eviction Risk Score is 5.2/10, in the Moderate tier. 21% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

The main counterweight is supply constraint, at 2.1/10. Scores across the 8 constituent tracts range from 4.5 to 5.8. A 1.3-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here. Well under the midpoint is eviction-process difficulty, at 2.6/10.

Filings are well documented here: 1,023 across 4 observed tracts. At $1,271 a month, rents sit 16% under what the rest of Bayshore Gardens commands. Against a Bayshore Gardens baseline of 40.9%, 45% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

The worst year on record was 2016, when filings touched 18.6% of renter households. Judgments average 4.7% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.6/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Annual rent works out to 31% of average household income of $48,755. 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 5.2 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score

5.2

Moderate

8 tracts · population-weighted

Casa Loma vs Bayshore Gardens How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

45.4% +11%

Bayshore Gardens: 40.9%

Average gross rent

$1,271 -16%

Bayshore Gardens: $1,506

Average HH income

$48,755 -4%

Bayshore Gardens: $50,896

Poverty rate

15.5% +1%

Bayshore Gardens: 15.4%

Renter share

42.9% +27%

Bayshore Gardens: 33.8%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Casa Loma and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 8 tracts span score 4.5–5.8

Why Casa Loma scores 5.2

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 4.2–4.2 across tracts

4.2

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 1.5–4.8 across tracts

3.6

Rent control risk

45% of income on rent · Range 1.5–8.6 across tracts

5.3

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 1.0–5.0 across tracts

2.6

Tenant organizing strength

43% renter households · Range 4.0–9.2 across tracts

6.7

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 5.0–7.8 across tracts

6.6

Economic stress

15.5% below poverty line · Range 1.4–5.3 across tracts

3.9

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–4.2 across tracts

2.1

Risk score comparison

Casa Loma vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Casa Loma?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1.3 points from 4.5 to 5.8. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

5.8 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.5

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

8 tracts in Casa Loma

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
12081000203	5.8	1,864	37%	$1,706
12081000201	5.5	4,880	33%	$1,124
12081000314	5.5	2,375	62%	$738
12081000305	5.2	7,028	44%	$1,122
12081000106	5.2	5,088	30%	$1,337
12081000204	5.2	2,268	70%	$1,416
12081000313	5.2	1,018	45%	$1,241
12081000304	4.5	3,939	63%	$1,673

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 84

Pop-weighted across 8 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 88%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 73%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 61%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 76%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Casa Loma

Aggregated across 4 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

1,023Total filings (sum)
9.69%Avg annual filing rate
18.6%Peak year (2016)
8.63%Latest filed (2016)

Frequently asked

About Casa Loma

What is the eviction-risk score for Casa Loma?

Casa Loma scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier) across 8 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Casa Loma compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?

Casa Loma scores 1.1 points higher than Bayshore Gardens overall (4.1/10). Renters spend 45% of income on rent vs 41% citywide. Average rent: $1,271 vs $1,506.

What is the average rent in Casa Loma?

Average gross rent in Casa Loma is $1,271/month (pop-weighted across 8 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 45% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Casa Loma residents are renters?

43% of Casa Loma households are renter-occupied (vs 34% in Bayshore Gardens). The neighborhood has 28,460 residents.

Is Casa Loma a high social-vulnerability area?

Casa Loma sits in the 84th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Casa Loma have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Casa Loma is census tract 12081000203 (score 5.8/10). Across the 8 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 4.5 to 5.8, a spread of 1.3 points.

How safe is Casa Loma for landlords?

Casa Loma carries a moderate-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (5.2/10). Pop-weighted across 8 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to Bayshore Gardens as a whole (4.1/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Casa Loma?

Casa Loma has 27,586 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (48.2%), Hispanic / Latino (36.1%), Black (non-Hispanic) (10.9%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Casa Loma

5.3 Cedar Hammock 9 tracts · pop 35,540 4.6 Palma Sola Bay Club 6 tracts · pop 19,525 4.6 Palmetto 4 tracts · pop 15,123 4.8 Amberwynd 2 tracts · pop 11,301 3 Lakewood Ranch 2 tracts · pop 14,288

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