Gillespie Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

Severe burden reaches 25%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears. What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 8.6/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income here, past the 30% affordability line, which compresses the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Running cool is eviction-process difficulty, at 1.5/10. This is a renter market: 66% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

At $1,268 a month, rents sit 25% under what the rest of Sarasota commands. Running hot is rent-regulation exposure at 8/10. The poverty rate is 19%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Filings are well documented here: 732 across 2 observed tracts. Filing activity peaked in 2002 at 15.1% of renter households.

The most recent observed rate, 4.9% in 2018, is well off that peak. That places it #3 of 7 neighborhoods in Sarasota. The closest comparables inside the same city are Avondale and Rosemary District.

Social vulnerability runs high at 7.6/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

With little internal variation, 5.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.