Canaryville Eviction Risk: High , Chicago

At $553 a month, rents run 62% under what the rest of Chicago commands. Housing insecurity runs 38.3% against 14.2% nationally.

The poverty rate is 49%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 30.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

59% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Cook County average of 45.6%. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1/10. It sits 2.0 points above the Cook County average of 6.1.

22% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. 75% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Set annual rent against average income of $20,669 and the ratio lands at 32%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.