Mayfair Eviction Risk: High , Chicago

Against the Cook County average of 6.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points. 65% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Housing insecurity runs 28.5% against 14.2% nationally. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.2/10. Court records carry 229 eviction filings across 15 observed years.

Average gross rent is $1,271, 12% below the Chicago average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 15.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Filings peaked in 2013 at 5.2% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Chicago. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.