Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
Keller Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , South Bend
Tract 18141000302 · St. Joseph County, IN · pop 2,709 · neighborhood within 1.3 mi
Census tract 18141000302 covers part of the Keller Park area of South Bend, IN, and scores 4.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,709 residents. The severe-burden share is 41%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 56%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 28%
Tract context
Occupied units1,169
Renter share72.6%
SVI overall0.87
Poverty rate24.9%
Median income$36,943
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
74
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across South Bend and the region
Centroid at 41.7156, -86.2814 · click any tract to drill in
Why Keller Park scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South Bend
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Indiana legislature & governorship
2.0
Economic stress
24.9% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$1,085 rent vs county FMR
4.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from South Bend
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South Bend
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from South Bend
2.5
How Keller Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 87
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 73%Socioeconomic
- 93%Household composition
- 80%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 1%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 62Total filings over 1 yrs
- 6.91%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.9%Peak (2015)
- 62Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 350Total filings 2020-21
- 4.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 5.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.82×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Richmond, VA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Keller Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 24.6%Housing insecurity
- 21.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 33.8%Food insecurity
- 28.0%SNAP enrollment
- 17.0%Transit barriers
- 11.5%No health insurance
- 22.7%Frequent mental distress
- 42.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Keller Park
Against St. Joseph County at 41.2%, 78% of renters here are cost-burdened. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Annualized rent equals 35% of average household income of $36,943, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. 73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 25%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
SNAP participation runs 28.0% against 15.2% nationally. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2/10.
Housing insecurity runs 24.6% against 14.2% nationally. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 62 filings here across 1 tracked years. Against the St. Joseph County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.8 points.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 6.9% of renter households.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 18141000302
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 18141000302?
Census tract 18141000302 in the Keller Park neighborhood scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 18141000302?
Median gross rent is $1,085/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 78% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 18141000302?
24.9% of residents in tract 18141000302 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,709.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 18141000302?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 87th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 93th, minority 80th, housing 79th.
Q5
Is tract 18141000302 considered part of Keller Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 18141000302 fall within Keller Park (neighborhood centroid within 1.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 18141000302?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 62 eviction filings across 1 validated years in tract 18141000302 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.91% of renter households, peaking at 6.9% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 18141000302 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.82× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Richmond eviction risk, VA), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 18141000302 struggle to pay rent?
About 24.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 21.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 18141000302 compare to South Bend overall?
Tract 18141000302 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of South Bend at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South Bend eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 18141000302 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South Bend
Top eight tracts in South Bend ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IN
Southeast
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
Miami Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
River Park
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
Southeast
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
Monroe Park
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
Rum Village
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
LaSalle Park
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IN
Near West Side
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
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