Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #28,095 of 84,120 nationally
Elsmere Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 21117063607 · Kenton County, KY · pop 2,847 · 70% of tract blocks fall in Elsmere
Census tract 21117063607 covers part of Elsmere, KY, and scores 5.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,847 residents. Against Kenton County at 37.9%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
5.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 65%
Tract context
Occupied units1,006
Renter share35.0%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate19.1%
Median income$59,369
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
100
th percentile
Very High
Within state
92
th percentile
Very High
National
67
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Elsmere and the region
Centroid at 38.9868, -84.6021 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elsmere scores 5.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Elsmere
4.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.0
State political climate
Kentucky legislature & governorship
2.1
Economic stress
19.1% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$1,401 rent vs county FMR
5.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elsmere
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elsmere
6.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elsmere
6.5
How Elsmere compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 74
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 49%Socioeconomic
- 61%Household composition
- 34%Racial/ethnic minority
- 98%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elsmere
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.7/10. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.8/10.
Against the Kenton County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points. Running cool, state political climate reads 2.1/10. The poverty rate is 19%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. That is riskier than roughly 67% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the KY average is 3.9, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
Average gross rent is $1,401, close to the Elsmere average. Annual rent works out to 28% of average household income of $59,369.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 21117063607
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 21117063607?
Census tract 21117063607 in Elsmere scores 5.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 21117063607?
Median gross rent is $1,401/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 21117063607?
19.1% of residents in tract 21117063607 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,847.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 21117063607?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 49th, household 61th, minority 34th, housing 98th.
Q5
How does tract 21117063607 compare to Elsmere overall?
Tract 21117063607 scores 5.3/10, higher than the parent city of Elsmere at 3.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elsmere eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q6
Was tract 21117063607 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Elsmere
Top eight tracts in Elsmere ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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