Watkins Overlook Eviction Risk: Lower

At $3,078 a month, rents sit 72% over what the rest of Damascus commands. The voucher gap is 33.0%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which shows up as churn rather than arrears. 28% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

Pulling the other way is economic stress, at 1/10. On the high side is supply constraint at 8.3/10.

Well under the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength, at 2.6/10. SNAP participation is 5.4% of households versus 15.2% nationally. Food insecurity affects 8.7% of adults, 9.1 points below the national rate.

That places it #3 of 4 neighborhoods in Damascus. Only 6% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin here; price renewals off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

For a like-for-like read, Garfield Manor and Chesney score within a fraction of it. Against average income of $188,305, annual rent is only 20%, a wide affordability cushion.

One tract means one number: 3.6/10 applies directly to any address inside the boundary. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.