Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Green Castle Lakes Eviction Risk: Moderate , Fairland
Tract 24031701423 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 5,868 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
In the Green Castle Lakes area of Fairland, census tract 24031701423 scores 7.4/10 for eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 98% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 40% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,852 a month against an average household income of $88,389 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 52% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 30%
Stable renters 22%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,964
Renter share52.1%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate13.3%
Median income$88,389
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
73
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fairland and the region
Centroid at 39.0865, -76.9383 · click any tract to drill in
Why Green Castle Lakes scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fairland
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
13.3% poverty · this tract
3.3
Supply constraint
$1,852 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fairland
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fairland
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fairland
6.7
How Green Castle Lakes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 75
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 69%Socioeconomic
- 73%Household composition
- 92%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Green Castle Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.3%Housing insecurity
- 13.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.8%Food insecurity
- 18.5%SNAP enrollment
- 11.1%Transit barriers
- 10.1%No health insurance
- 15.7%Frequent mental distress
- 25.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Green Castle Lakes
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 9.3/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Fairland eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Montgomery County average of 6.7 and above the Maryland statewide average of 6.6. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 20.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 13.0% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is predominantly Black and ranks around the 75th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 24031701423
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031701423?
Census tract 24031701423 in the Green Castle Lakes neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 24031701423?
Median gross rent is $1,852/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 24031701423?
13.3% of residents in tract 24031701423 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,868.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 24031701423?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 69th, household 73th, minority 92th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 24031701423 considered part of Green Castle Lakes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031701423 fall within Green Castle Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 24031701423 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 13.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 24031701423 compare to Fairland overall?
Tract 24031701423 scores 4.7/10, lower than the parent city of Fairland at 6.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fairland eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fairland
Top eight tracts in Fairland ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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