Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #6,330 of 84,120 nationally
Green Castle Lakes Eviction Risk: High , Fairland
Tract 24031701422 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 2,711 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 24031701422 covers part of the Green Castle Lakes area of Fairland, MD, and scores 8.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,711. 41% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
8.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 77%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 0%
Tract context
Occupied units1,137
Renter share100.0%
SVI overall0.83
Poverty rate13.0%
Median income$56,631
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
97
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fairland and the region
Centroid at 39.0830, -76.9438 · click any tract to drill in
Why Green Castle Lakes scores 8.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fairland
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
13.0% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$1,768 rent vs county FMR
2.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fairland
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fairland
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fairland
6.7
How Green Castle Lakes compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 83
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 77%Socioeconomic
- 77%Household composition
- 94%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Green Castle Lakes. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 23.8%Housing insecurity
- 14.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 25.4%Food insecurity
- 20.5%SNAP enrollment
- 12.1%Transit barriers
- 11.5%No health insurance
- 17.3%Frequent mental distress
- 24.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Green Castle Lakes
77% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well clear of the Montgomery County average of 46.7%. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.8/10. 100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.3/10. It sits 2.3 points above the Montgomery County average of 6.0.
Set annual rent against average income of $56,631 and the ratio lands at 37%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10. Housing insecurity runs 23.8% against 14.2% nationally.
Inability to pay a utility bill runs 14.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 92% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.5/10.
Statewide the MD average is 5.5, so this tract runs 2.8 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 24031701422
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031701422?
Census tract 24031701422 in the Green Castle Lakes neighborhood scores 8.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 24031701422?
Median gross rent is $1,768/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 24031701422?
13.0% of residents in tract 24031701422 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,711.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 24031701422?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 83th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 77th, household 77th, minority 94th, housing 71th.
Q5
Is tract 24031701422 considered part of Green Castle Lakes?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031701422 fall within Green Castle Lakes (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 24031701422 struggle to pay rent?
About 23.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 14.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 24031701422 compare to Fairland overall?
Tract 24031701422 scores 8.3/10, higher than the parent city of Fairland at 6.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fairland eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fairland
Top eight tracts in Fairland ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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