Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #41,206 of 84,120 nationally
Cottage Park Eviction Risk: Moderate , Winthrop Town
Tract 25025180400 · Suffolk County, MA · pop 2,075 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Census tract 25025180400 covers part of the Cottage Park area of Winthrop Town, MA, and scores 4.5/10 on landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,075. Against the Suffolk County average of 7.9, this tract reads safer for landlords by 3.4 points.
Risk score
4.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 55%
Tract context
Occupied units780
Renter share45.3%
SVI overall0.14
Poverty rate0.7%
Median income$113,261
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
25
th percentile
Low
Within county
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
21
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Winthrop Town and the region
Centroid at 42.3774, -70.9770 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cottage Park scores 4.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Winthrop Town
8.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.2
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
0.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$1,807 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Winthrop Town
5.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Winthrop Town
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Winthrop Town
5.0
How Cottage Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 14
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 15%Household composition
- 47%Racial/ethnic minority
- 19%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 24%Grade B
- 39%Grade C
- 1%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 34Total filings over 5 yrs
- 2.59%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.3%Peak (2015)
- 8Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 60% over the past 5 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 33Total filings 2020-21
- 0.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.26×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Boston, MA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Cottage Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.8%Food insecurity
- 9.6%SNAP enrollment
- 6.1%Transit barriers
- 3.9%No health insurance
- 15.8%Frequent mental distress
- 22.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cottage Park
The clearest offset is economic stress at 1/10. 23% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.4/10.
On the high side, local political climate reads 8.3/10. Food insecurity runs 8.8% against 17.8% nationally.
Court records carry 34 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Adults with no health insurance runs 3.9% against 11.3% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,807, 12% below the Winthrop Town average.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 3.3% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Winthrop. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.
In a typical year about 2.6% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 51st percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 1.7 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 25025180400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25025180400?
Census tract 25025180400 in the Cottage Park neighborhood scores 4.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 25025180400?
Median gross rent is $1,807/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 25025180400?
0.7% of residents in tract 25025180400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,075.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 25025180400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 14th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 15th, minority 47th, housing 19th.
Q5
Is tract 25025180400 considered part of Cottage Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25025180400 fall within Cottage Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 25025180400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 34 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 25025180400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.59% of renter households, peaking at 3.3% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 25025180400 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.26× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Boston eviction risk, MA), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 25025180400 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 25025180400 compare to Winthrop Town overall?
Tract 25025180400 scores 4.5/10, lower than the parent city of Winthrop Town at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Winthrop Town; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 25025180400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 1% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Winthrop Town
Top eight tracts in Winthrop Town ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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