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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Hills of Spring Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Oak Park Heights

Tract 27163070706 · Washington County, MN · pop 3,196 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi

27163070706 is a census tract in the Hills of Spring Creek area of Oak Park Heights, MN. It scores 5.8/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,196. 59% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 33% Stable renters 10% Owners 57%
Tract context
Occupied units1,466
Renter share42.9%
SVI overall0.30
Poverty rate3.7%
Median income$111,667

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Hills of Spring Creek
Very High
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Oak Park Heights
Moderate
Within county
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#3 of 59 tracts In Washington County
Very High
Within state
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#233 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Oak Park Heights and the region

Centroid at 45.0000, -92.8329 · click any tract to drill in

Why Hills of Spring Creek scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Oak Park Heights
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
3.7% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,480 rent vs county FMR
9.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Oak Park Heights
8.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Oak Park Heights
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Oak Park Heights
6.1

How Hills of Spring Creek compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Hills of Spring Creek risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 0707065.9Oak Park Heightsparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 30

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Hills of Spring Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Hills of Spring Creek

Against Washington County at 44.0%, 77% of renters here are cost-burdened. Average gross rent is $2,480, 72% above the Oak Park Heights average. The voucher gap is 47.2%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

The dominant input is supply constraint at 9.7/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.2/10.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1/10. Against the Washington County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points. Food insecurity runs 5.4% against 17.8% nationally.

Housing insecurity runs 4.3% against 14.2% nationally. Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 1.3 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 4%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $111,667. 43% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 27163070706

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27163070706?

Census tract 27163070706 in the Hills of Spring Creek neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27163070706?

Median gross rent is $2,480/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 77% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27163070706?

3.7% of residents in tract 27163070706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,196.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27163070706?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 30th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 14th, household 48th, minority 8th, housing 66th.
Q5

Is tract 27163070706 considered part of Hills of Spring Creek?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27163070706 fall within Hills of Spring Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 27163070706 struggle to pay rent?

About 4.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 2.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 27163070706 compare to Oak Park Heights overall?

Tract 27163070706 scores 5.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Oak Park Heights at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Oak Park Heights; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Oak Park Heights

Top eight tracts in Oak Park Heights ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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