Pioneer Eviction Risk: Moderate , Butte

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 49%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

84% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $20,800, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Food insecurity runs 33.8% against 17.8% nationally. On the softer side, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.4/10. At $618 a month, rents run 28% under what the rest of Butte commands.

The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against the Silver Bow County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 17.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

On the national scale it lands near the 63rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Social vulnerability reads 7.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.