Tonawanda Town Eviction Risk: Moderate

The clearest offset is tenant-organizing strength at 2.5/10. It sits 1.4 points below the Erie County average of 6.8.

On the high side, state political climate reads 7.3/10. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 7/10.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 70th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 20% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.

Social vulnerability reads 3.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Rent consumes only 13% of average household income of $96,875, an unusually wide affordability cushion. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 2.3 points cooler.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 47% of renters.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.