Orchard Park Eviction Risk: Moderate

Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10. Against the Erie County average of 6.8, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.4 points. The severe-burden share is 11%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.3/10. Housing insecurity runs 6.3% against 14.2% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Against average income of $116,083, annual rent is just 13%. Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 2.3 points cooler. Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.