Genesee-Jefferson Eviction Risk: High , Rochester

The poverty rate is 43%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. SNAP participation runs 37.6% against 15.2% nationally. 88% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

It sits 2.3 points above the Monroe County average of 7.2. 25% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10.

Average gross rent is $809, 25% below the Rochester average. about half of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, higher than the Monroe County average of 46.4%. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

That is riskier than roughly 97% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.