Edgerton Eviction Risk: High , Rochester

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.8/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 29.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The poverty rate is 39%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

The severe-burden share is 27%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Against the Monroe County average of 7.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points.

80% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Set annual rent against average income of $30,446 and the ratio lands at 36%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 1.5/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 7.5/10. At $925 a month, rents run 14% under what the rest of Rochester commands. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Rochester. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

That is riskier than roughly 97% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.