Wilmington Eviction Risk: Moderate

34% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the New Hanover County average of 48.2%. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. 75% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The poverty rate is 31%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

It sits 1.4 points above the New Hanover County average of 4.0. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8/10.

The severe-burden share is 12%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 18.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Housing insecurity runs 22.7% against 14.2% nationally. The filing record is not thin: 2,612 evictions over 12 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2007, when 36.1% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 21.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 70% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.