Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Heisley Park Eviction Risk: Lower , Painesville
Tract 39085204303 · Lake County, OH · pop 2,721 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 3.7/10, tract 39085204303 in the Heisley Park area of Painesville, OH reads lower for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,721 residents. At $1,714 a month, rents run 65% over what the rest of Painesville commands.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 56%
Tract context
Occupied units1,100
Renter share43.9%
SVI overall0.26
Poverty rate5.4%
Median income$100,969
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
57
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
46
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across Painesville and the region
Centroid at 41.7105, -81.2841 · click any tract to drill in
Why Heisley Park scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Painesville
4.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.3
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
5.4% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,714 rent vs county FMR
9.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Painesville
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Painesville
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Painesville
7.7
How Heisley Park compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 26
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 19%Socioeconomic
- 30%Household composition
- 40%Racial/ethnic minority
- 45%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.2%Housing insecurity
- 6.3%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.4%Food insecurity
- 6.7%SNAP enrollment
- 5.8%Transit barriers
- 6.3%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 22.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Heisley Park
The voucher gap is 41.9%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. The score leans hardest on tenant-organizing strength at 9.2/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 9.2/10. The severe-burden share is 25%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.3/10. SNAP participation runs 6.7% against 15.2% nationally.
Food insecurity runs 9.4% against 17.8% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 35% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.4/10.
Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 39085204303
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39085204303?
Census tract 39085204303 in the Heisley Park neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39085204303?
Median gross rent is $1,714/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39085204303?
5.4% of residents in tract 39085204303 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,721.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39085204303?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 26th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 19th, household 30th, minority 40th, housing 45th.
Q5
Is tract 39085204303 considered part of Heisley Park?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39085204303 fall within Heisley Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 39085204303 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.3% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 39085204303 compare to Painesville overall?
Tract 39085204303 scores 3.7/10, lower than the parent city of Painesville at 4.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Painesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Painesville
Top eight tracts in Painesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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