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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Jefferson Eviction Risk: Moderate , Warren

Tract 39155934000 · Trumbull County, OH · pop 4,999 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

With a score of 5.8/10, tract 39155934000 in the Jefferson area of Warren, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 4,999 residents. The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 22% Stable renters 32% Owners 46%
Tract context
Occupied units1,787
Renter share53.7%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate54.2%
Median income$24,698

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Jefferson
Moderate
Within parent city
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#3 of 13 tracts In Warren
High
Within county
98 th percentile
Rank, 98th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 54 tracts In Trumbull County
Very High
Within state
91 th percentile
Rank, 91st percentileLowHigh
#295 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Warren and the region

Centroid at 41.2088, -80.8207 · click any tract to drill in

Why Jefferson scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Warren
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
54.2% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$707 rent vs county FMR
3.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Warren
7.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Warren
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Warren
8.4

How Jefferson compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Jefferson risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 9340004.4Warrenparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 90

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Jefferson

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10. Food insecurity runs 54.4% against 17.8% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 33.7% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The poverty rate is 54%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.8/10. Annualized rent equals 34% of average household income of $24,698, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Against the Trumbull County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.7 points.

On the high side, housing-court posture reads 8.4/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. Nationally it ranks #20,506 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Social vulnerability reads 9.1/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the OH average is 4.2, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

40% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 39155934000

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39155934000?

Census tract 39155934000 in the Jefferson neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39155934000?

Median gross rent is $707/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39155934000?

54.2% of residents in tract 39155934000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,999.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39155934000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 74th, household 75th, minority 72th, housing 98th.
Q5

Is tract 39155934000 considered part of Jefferson?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39155934000 fall within Jefferson (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 39155934000 struggle to pay rent?

About 36.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 33.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 39155934000 compare to Warren overall?

Tract 39155934000 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Warren at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Warren eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 39155934000 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 6% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Warren

Top eight tracts in Warren ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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