Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #12,481 of 84,120 nationally
Cottage Grove Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 41039001301 · Lane County, OR · pop 3,486 · 29% of tract blocks fall in Cottage Grove
With a score of 7.1/10, tract 41039001301 in Cottage Grove, OR reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 3,486. The severe-burden share is 34%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
7.1
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15%
Stable renters 17%
Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units1,373
Renter share32.2%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate20.1%
Median income$55,295
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
74
th percentile
Elevated
National
85
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Cottage Grove and the region
Centroid at 43.7850, -122.9626 · click any tract to drill in
Why Cottage Grove scores 7.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Cottage Grove
6.6
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
20.1% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$960 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Cottage Grove
5.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Cottage Grove
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Cottage Grove
6.0
How Cottage Grove compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 84
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 73%Socioeconomic
- 91%Household composition
- 24%Racial/ethnic minority
- 90%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 182Total filings over 16 yrs
- 2.90%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.9%Peak (2001)
- 15Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 16 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 57Total filings 2020-21
- 0.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.70×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Eugene, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Cottage Grove
Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.4/10. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.
At $960 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of Cottage Grove commands. The poverty rate is 20%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the high side, state political climate reads 7.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 182 evictions over 16 years of observation. It sits 0.9 points above the Lane County average of 6.2. The worst year on record was 2001, when 5.9% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 2.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the OR average is 6.1, so this tract runs 1.0 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 41039001301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41039001301?
Census tract 41039001301 in Cottage Grove scores 7.1/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41039001301?
Median gross rent is $960/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41039001301?
20.1% of residents in tract 41039001301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,486.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41039001301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 91th, minority 24th, housing 90th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41039001301?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 182 eviction filings across 16 validated years in tract 41039001301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.90% of renter households, peaking at 5.9% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 41039001301 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.70× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Eugene eviction risk, OR), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 41039001301 compare to Cottage Grove overall?
Tract 41039001301 scores 7.1/10, higher than the parent city of Cottage Grove at 6.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Cottage Grove eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Cottage Grove
Top eight tracts in Cottage Grove ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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