Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #37,882 of 84,120 nationally
Elmira Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 41039000902 · Lane County, OR · pop 4,516 · 7% of tract blocks fall in Elmira
Tract 41039000902 sits in Elmira, OR, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.7/10. Population here is 4,516. Cost burden runs roughly one in eight here against 46.2% across Lane County.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 11%
Owners 87%
Tract context
Occupied units1,793
Renter share12.5%
SVI overall0.52
Poverty rate8.9%
Median income$94,236
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
14
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
17
th percentile
Very Low
National
55
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Elmira and the region
Centroid at 44.0983, -123.5055 · click any tract to drill in
Why Elmira scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Elmira
7.3
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.2
State political climate
Oregon legislature & governorship
7.2
Economic stress
8.9% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,602 rent vs county FMR
5.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elmira
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elmira
5.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elmira
5.1
How Elmira compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 52
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 44%Household composition
- 24%Racial/ethnic minority
- 74%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 92Total filings over 16 yrs
- 1.93%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.8%Peak (2011)
- 6Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 16 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 43Total filings 2020-21
- 0.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.07×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Eugene, OR as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Elmira
The clearest offset is economic stress at 2.2/10. Against the Lane County average of 6.2, this tract reads safer for landlords by 1.5 points. 13% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.3/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, state political climate reads 7.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 92 evictions over 16 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2011, when 3.8% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 1.9% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #37,882 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
At 13% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.7/10.
Statewide the OR average is 6.1, so this tract runs 1.4 points cooler.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 41039000902
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 41039000902?
Census tract 41039000902 in Elmira scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 41039000902?
Median gross rent is $1,602/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 13% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 41039000902?
8.9% of residents in tract 41039000902 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,516.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 41039000902?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 52th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 44th, minority 24th, housing 74th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 41039000902?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 92 eviction filings across 16 validated years in tract 41039000902 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.93% of renter households, peaking at 3.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 41039000902 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.07× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Eugene eviction risk, OR), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 41039000902 compare to Elmira overall?
Tract 41039000902 scores 4.7/10, lower than the parent city of Elmira at 5.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elmira; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
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