Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Census Tract · Ranked #8,912 of 84,120 nationally
Carlisle Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 42041012200 · Cumberland County, PA · pop 2,031
Here is how census tract 42041012200, in Carlisle eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 6.4/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 2,031. That is riskier than about 84% of US census tracts.
About 58% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 23% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $957 monthly, set against $38,053 in average yearly household income, roughly 30% of income at the averages. Renters make up 79% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6.3
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 46%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 21%
Tract context
Occupied units1,262
Renter share79.2%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate24.9%
Median income$38,053
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
98
th percentile
Very High
Within state
90
th percentile
Very High
National
89
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Carlisle and the region
Centroid at 40.2014, -77.1888 · click any tract to drill in
Why Carlisle scores 6.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Carlisle
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
24.9% poverty · this tract
6.2
Supply constraint
$957 rent vs county FMR
2.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Carlisle
6.8
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Carlisle
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Carlisle
7.1
How Carlisle compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 74
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 85%Socioeconomic
- 17%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 83%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 63Total filings over 3 yrs
- 2.66%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.6%Peak (2000)
- 17Filings in 2004 (latest validated)
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Carlisle
The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 9.2/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Carlisle eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Cumberland County average of 5.1 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 74th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 63 eviction filings here over 3 tracked years, with about 2.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 3.6% of renter households in 2000.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 42041012200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42041012200?
Census tract 42041012200 in Carlisle scores 6.3/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42041012200?
Median gross rent is $957/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42041012200?
24.9% of residents in tract 42041012200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,031.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42041012200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 85th, household 17th, minority 53th, housing 83th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42041012200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 63 eviction filings across 3 validated years in tract 42041012200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.66% of renter households, peaking at 3.6% in 2000. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
How does tract 42041012200 compare to Carlisle overall?
Tract 42041012200 scores 6.3/10, higher than the parent city of Carlisle at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Carlisle eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Carlisle
Top eight tracts in Carlisle ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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