Baumberg Eviction Risk: Elevated , Hayward

At $3,193 a month, rents run 34% over what the rest of Hayward commands. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10.

Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.5/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.3/10. The voucher gap is 19.1%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.

Severe burden reaches 10%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. It sits 0.9 points below the Alameda County average of 7.8.

That is riskier than roughly 84% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. At 8% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Poverty sits at 6%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.

Annual rent works out to 27% of average household income of $142,500.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.