Neighborhood · Ranked #29,336 of 84,120 nationally
Lower Heatherview Eviction Risk: Moderate , Lake Forest
Tract 06059052422 ·
Orange, CA · pop 11,631 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 5.2/10, tract 06059052422 in the Lower Heatherview area of Lake Forest, CA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 11,631 residents. The severe-burden share is 29%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%Stable renters 17%Owners 66%
Tract context
Occupied units4,013
Renter share33.6%
SVI overall0.29
Poverty rate3.0%
Median income$154,844
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0th percentile
#2 of 2 tracts In Lower Heatherview
Very Low
Within parent city
0th percentile
#14 of 14 tracts In Lake Forest
Very Low
Within county
6th percentile
#577 of 613 tracts In Orange
Very Low
Within state
9th percentile
#8,324 of 9,109 tracts In California
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lake Forest and the region
Centroid at 33.6695, -117.6789 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lower Heatherview scores 5.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Lake Forest
5.9
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.5
State political climate
California legislature & governorship
6.8
Economic stress
3.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,843 rent vs county FMR
4.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lake Forest
7.9
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
6.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lake Forest
6.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lake Forest
6.2
How Lower Heatherview compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 29
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
25%Socioeconomic
41%Household composition
70%Racial/ethnic minority
25%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lower Heatherview. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
8.8%Housing insecurity
4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
9.6%Food insecurity
7.4%SNAP enrollment
5.6%Transit barriers
4.6%No health insurance
15.1%Frequent mental distress
19.9%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lower Heatherview
Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. It sits 1.8 points below the Orange County average of 7.0.
Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 7.9/10. Food insecurity runs 9.6% against 17.8% nationally.
SNAP participation runs 7.4% against 15.2% nationally. Nationally it ranks #29,336 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 3.6/10.
Statewide the CA average is 7.5, so this tract runs 2.3 points cooler. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 3%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. Rent takes 30% or more of income for about half of renters. Average gross rent is $2,843, close to the Lake Forest average.
Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $154,844.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 06059052422
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06059052422?
Census tract 06059052422 in the Lower Heatherview neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 06059052422?
Median gross rent is $2,843/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 06059052422?
3.0% of residents in tract 06059052422 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 11,631.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 06059052422?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 41th, minority 70th, housing 25th.
Q5
Is tract 06059052422 considered part of Lower Heatherview?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06059052422 fall within Lower Heatherview (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 06059052422 struggle to pay rent?
About 8.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 06059052422 compare to Lake Forest overall?
Tract 06059052422 scores 5.2/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Forest at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Forest; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lake Forest
Top eight tracts in Lake Forest ranked by composite eviction-risk score.