Neighborhood · Ranked #58,384 of 84,120 nationally

Lower Heatherview Eviction Risk: Lower , Lake Forest

Tract 06059052422 · Orange, CA · pop 11,631 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi

Tract 06059052422, home to 11,631 residents in the Lower Heatherview neighborhood of Lake Forest, scores 5.6/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 62% of US census tracts.

50% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $2,843 monthly, set against $154,844 in average yearly household income, roughly 22% of income at the averages. About 34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

Lower

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 17% Stable renters 17% Owners 66%

Tract context

Occupied units4,013

Renter share33.6%

SVI overall0.29

Poverty rate3.0%

Median income$154,844

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Lake Forest and the region

Centroid at 33.6695, -117.6789 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower Heatherview scores 3

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Lake Forest

5.9

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.5

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

3.0% poverty · this tract

1.0

Supply constraint

$2,843 rent vs county FMR

4.8

Rent control risk

Inherited from Lake Forest

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.0

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Lake Forest

6.4

Housing court bias

Inherited from Lake Forest

6.2

How Lower Heatherview compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 29

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

25%Socioeconomic
41%Household composition
70%Racial/ethnic minority
25%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lower Heatherview. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.8%Housing insecurity
4.6%Utility-shutoff threat
9.6%Food insecurity
7.4%SNAP enrollment
5.6%Transit barriers
4.6%No health insurance
15.1%Frequent mental distress
19.9%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower Heatherview

The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 7.9/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lake Forest, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Orange County average of 5.7 and below the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.6% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 29th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a relatively low-vulnerability reading.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 06059052422

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06059052422?

Census tract 06059052422 in the Lower Heatherview neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06059052422?

Median gross rent is $2,843/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06059052422?

3.0% of residents in tract 06059052422 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 11,631.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06059052422?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 29th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 41th, minority 70th, housing 25th.

Is tract 06059052422 considered part of Lower Heatherview?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 06059052422 fall within Lower Heatherview (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).

What share of households in tract 06059052422 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06059052422 compare to Lake Forest overall?

Tract 06059052422 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Lake Forest at 7.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lake Forest; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Lake Forest

Top eight tracts in Lake Forest ranked by composite eviction-risk score.