Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #21,564 of 84,120 nationally
Union Park Gardens Eviction Risk: Moderate , Elsmere
Tract 10003012400 · New Castle County, DE · pop 4,059 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
10003012400 is a census tract in the Union Park Gardens area of Elsmere, DE. It scores 5.7/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,059 residents. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.4/10.
Risk score
5.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 8%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 79%
Tract context
Occupied units1,667
Renter share20.7%
SVI overall0.67
Poverty rate20.1%
Median income$75,434
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
87
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Elsmere and the region
Centroid at 39.7354, -75.6027 · click any tract to drill in
Why Union Park Gardens scores 5.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Elsmere
7.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.9
State political climate
Delaware legislature & governorship
3.2
Economic stress
20.1% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,348 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Elsmere
6.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Elsmere
7.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Elsmere
7.1
How Union Park Gardens compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 67
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 54%Socioeconomic
- 81%Household composition
- 66%Racial/ethnic minority
- 58%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 652Total filings over 9 yrs
- 17.36%Avg annual filing rate
- 27.2%Peak (2018)
- 102Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 70% over the past 9 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 583Total filings 2020-21
- 7.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 7.1Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.07×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tampa, FL as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 16.7%Housing insecurity
- 10.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.4%Food insecurity
- 17.4%SNAP enrollment
- 10.7%Transit barriers
- 14.5%No health insurance
- 18.1%Frequent mental distress
- 33.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Union Park Gardens
21% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. It sits 1.5 points above the New Castle County average of 4.2. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.5/10.
The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against New Castle County at 44.1%, 39% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 7.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 652 filings here across 9 tracked years.
The worst year on record was 2018, when 27.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 17.4% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #21,564 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 21% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 10003012400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 10003012400?
Census tract 10003012400 in the Union Park Gardens neighborhood scores 5.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 10003012400?
Median gross rent is $1,348/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 39% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 10003012400?
20.1% of residents in tract 10003012400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,059.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 10003012400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 67th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 81th, minority 66th, housing 58th.
Q5
Is tract 10003012400 considered part of Union Park Gardens?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 10003012400 fall within Union Park Gardens (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 10003012400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 652 eviction filings across 9 validated years in tract 10003012400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.36% of renter households, peaking at 27.2% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 10003012400 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.07× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tampa, FL), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 10003012400 struggle to pay rent?
About 16.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 10.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 10003012400 compare to Elsmere overall?
Tract 10003012400 scores 5.7/10, higher than the parent city of Elsmere at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Elsmere eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Elsmere
Top eight tracts in Elsmere ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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