Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally
Ventura Bay Eviction Risk: Moderate , Brandon
Tract 12057013706 · Hillsborough, FL · pop 3,048 · neighborhood within 0.6 mi
Tract 12057013706, home to 3,048 residents in the Ventura Bay area of Brandon, scores $1/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than roughly 75% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 54% of renter households, a severe level, and 39% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,629 monthly, set against $51,536 in average yearly household income, roughly 38% of income at the averages. Renters make up 96% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 52%
Stable renters 45%
Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units1,388
Renter share96.3%
SVI overall0.41
Poverty rate31.0%
Median income$51,536
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
80
th percentile
High
Within state
82
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Brandon and the region
Centroid at 27.8965, -82.3436 · click any tract to drill in
Why Ventura Bay scores 4.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Brandon
5.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.3
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
31.0% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$1,629 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Brandon
7.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Brandon
5.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Brandon
6.0
How Ventura Bay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 41
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 9%Household composition
- 78%Racial/ethnic minority
- 28%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 159Total filings 2020-21
- 2.2Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.79×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Ventura Bay. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Ventura Bay
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 7.8/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Brandon eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Hillsborough County average of 5.1 and above the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.79x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, a little under the pre-pandemic norm.
The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 41st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 12057013706
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12057013706?
Census tract 12057013706 in the Ventura Bay neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12057013706?
Median gross rent is $1,629/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12057013706?
31.0% of residents in tract 12057013706 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,048.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12057013706?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 41th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 9th, minority 78th, housing 28th.
Q5
Is tract 12057013706 considered part of Ventura Bay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12057013706 fall within Ventura Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.6 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 12057013706 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.79× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 12057013706 compare to Brandon overall?
Tract 12057013706 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Brandon at 2.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Brandon eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Brandon
Top eight tracts in Brandon ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Boyette Park
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Winthrop
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Alafia Oaks
2.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Colonial Hills
2.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Boyette Park
2.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Alafia Cove
2.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
Winthrop Village
2.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · FL
12057013917
2.2
/ 10 · Low
Related