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Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally

Casa Loma Eviction Risk: Moderate , Bayshore Gardens

Tract 12081000203 · Manatee, FL · pop 1,864 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

12081000203 is a census tract in the Casa Loma area of West Samoset, FL. It scores 5.8/10 for landlords. It is home to 1,864 residents. Annualized rent equals 58% of average household income of $35,000, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9% Stable renters 15% Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units914
Renter share24.5%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate16.7%
Median income$35,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 8 tracts In Casa Loma
Very High
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Bayshore Gardens
Very High
Within county
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 93 tracts In Manatee
Very High
Within state
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#259 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Bayshore Gardens and the region

Centroid at 27.4547, -82.5493 · click any tract to drill in

Why Casa Loma scores 5.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
4.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.2
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
16.7% poverty · this tract
4.2
Supply constraint
$1,706 rent vs county FMR
4.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
6.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.2
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
9.2
Housing court bias
Inherited from Bayshore Gardens
7.3

How Casa Loma compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Casa Loma risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.8This tracttract 0002034.1Bayshore Gardensparent city4.1Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 91

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Casa Loma. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Casa Loma

Against Manatee County at 53.5%, 37% of renters here are cost-burdened. 29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.2/10.

Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.2/10. It sits 1.7 points above the Manatee County average of 4.1. Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10.

Disability prevalence runs 45.7% against 31.5% nationally. Adults with no health insurance runs 23.8% against 11.3% nationally. Average gross rent is $1,706, 21% above the West Samoset average.

On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 25% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.2/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 12081000203

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12081000203?

Census tract 12081000203 in the Casa Loma neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12081000203?

Median gross rent is $1,706/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 37% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12081000203?

16.7% of residents in tract 12081000203 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,864.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12081000203?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 97th, household 66th, minority 20th, housing 93th.
Q5

Is tract 12081000203 considered part of Casa Loma?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12081000203 fall within Casa Loma (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How does tract 12081000203 compare to Bayshore Gardens overall?

Tract 12081000203 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Bayshore Gardens at 4.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Bayshore Gardens; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Bayshore Gardens

Top eight tracts in Bayshore Gardens ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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