Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Bay Isle Eviction Risk: Lower , Siesta Key
Tract 12115001903 · Sarasota, FL · pop 1,730 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 12115001903 covers part of the Bay Isle area of Siesta Key, FL, and scores 3/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,730 residents. The dominant input is supply constraint at 10/10.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 8%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units787
Renter share14.2%
SVI overall0.11
Poverty rate4.8%
Median income$151,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
5
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
28
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Siesta Key and the region
Centroid at 27.2942, -82.5549 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bay Isle scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Siesta Key
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
4.8% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$3,125 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Siesta Key
4.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.6
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Siesta Key
2.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Siesta Key
4.1
How Bay Isle compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 11
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 16%Socioeconomic
- 27%Household composition
- 7%Racial/ethnic minority
- 18%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 15Total filings over 5 yrs
- 2.24%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.4%Peak (2016)
- 2Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 60% over the past 5 months.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bay Isle
The voucher gap is 69.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Severe burden reaches 24%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.2/10.
Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Against Sarasota County at 50.3%, 43% of renters here are cost-burdened. Court records carry 15 eviction filings across 5 observed years.
It sits 0.8 points below the Sarasota County average of 3.8. Average gross rent is $3,125, 11% below the Siesta Key average.
The worst year on record was 2016, when 5.4% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 2.2% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 20th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 1.1 points cooler.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 12115001903
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12115001903?
Census tract 12115001903 in the Bay Isle neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12115001903?
Median gross rent is $3,125/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12115001903?
4.8% of residents in tract 12115001903 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,730.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12115001903?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 11th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 16th, household 27th, minority 7th, housing 18th.
Q5
Is tract 12115001903 considered part of Bay Isle?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12115001903 fall within Bay Isle (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12115001903?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 15 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 12115001903 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.24% of renter households, peaking at 5.4% in 2016. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 12115001903 compare to Siesta Key overall?
Tract 12115001903 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Siesta Key at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Siesta Key; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Siesta Key
Top eight tracts in Siesta Key ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related