Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally
Avalon Trails Eviction Risk: Elevated , Chicago
Tract 17031550200 · Cook County, IL · pop 2,824 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Tract 17031550200 sits in the Avalon Trails area of Chicago eviction risk, IL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 6.5/10. It is home to 2,824 residents. Cost burden runs 16% here against 45.6% across Cook County.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units972
Renter share10.6%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate7.6%
Median income$72,232
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
35
th percentile
Low
Within county
54
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Chicago and the region
Centroid at 41.6551, -87.5648 · click any tract to drill in
Why Avalon Trails scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Chicago
8.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.5
State political climate
Illinois legislature & governorship
5.2
Economic stress
7.6% poverty · this tract
1.9
Supply constraint
$1,111 rent vs county FMR
1.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Chicago
5.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Chicago
8.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Chicago
6.5
How Avalon Trails compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 54%Socioeconomic
- 66%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 20%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 10%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 24Total filings over 14 yrs
- 2.11%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.2%Peak (2013)
- 2Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 15 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.3%Housing insecurity
- 8.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.0%Food insecurity
- 14.6%SNAP enrollment
- 9.2%Transit barriers
- 17.2%No health insurance
- 14.8%Frequent mental distress
- 28.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Avalon Trails
Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1.3/10. Running hot, local political climate reads 8.5/10. Well under the midpoint, economic stress reads 1.9/10.
The severe-burden share is 16%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. At $1,111 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of Chicago commands.
The filing record is not thin: 24 evictions over 14 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2013, when 5.2% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 2.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Only 11% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.4/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the IL average is 5.1, so this tract runs 1.4 points hotter.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 17031550200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 17031550200?
Census tract 17031550200 in the Avalon Trails neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 17031550200?
Median gross rent is $1,111/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 16% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 17031550200?
7.6% of residents in tract 17031550200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,824.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 17031550200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 54th, household 66th, minority 76th, housing 20th.
Q5
Is tract 17031550200 considered part of Avalon Trails?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 17031550200 fall within Avalon Trails (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 17031550200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 24 eviction filings across 14 validated years in tract 17031550200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.11% of renter households, peaking at 5.2% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 17031550200 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 17031550200 compare to Chicago overall?
Tract 17031550200 scores 6.5/10, right in line with the parent city of Chicago at 6.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Chicago eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 17031550200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 10% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Chicago
Top eight tracts in Chicago ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IL
Park Manor
8.1
/ 10 · High
Tract · IL
Chinatown
8.1
/ 10 · High
Tract · IL
Windsor Park
8.1
/ 10 · High
Tract · IL
Becks Park
8.1
/ 10 · High
Tract · IL
Homan Square
8.1
/ 10 · High
Tract · IL
Edgewater Beach
8.1
/ 10 · High
Tract · IL
Fifth City
8.1
/ 10 · High
Tract · IL
Canaryville
8.1
/ 10 · High
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