Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #68,306 of 84,120 nationally
Commerce Eviction Risk: Lower , West Des Moines
Tract 19153011028 · Polk County, IA · pop 5,163 · neighborhood within 1.5 mi
In the Commerce area of West Des Moines, census tract 19153011028 scores 5.3/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #42,242 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
40% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 19% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,031 monthly, set against $81,385 in average yearly household income, roughly 15% of income at the averages. Renters make up 40% of occupied homes.
Risk score
2.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 60%
Tract context
Occupied units2,287
Renter share39.9%
SVI overall0.63
Poverty rate6.3%
Median income$81,385
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
33
th percentile
Low
Within state
25
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across West Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.5318, -93.7384 · click any tract to drill in
Why Commerce scores 2.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from West Des Moines
6.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
6.3% poverty · this tract
1.6
Supply constraint
$1,031 rent vs county FMR
3.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from West Des Moines
4.3
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from West Des Moines
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from West Des Moines
4.2
How Commerce compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 63
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 57%Socioeconomic
- 73%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 382Total filings over 10 yrs
- 5.00%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.0%Peak (2011)
- 27Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 43% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Commerce. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.9%Housing insecurity
- 5.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 9.0%Food insecurity
- 6.9%SNAP enrollment
- 5.4%Transit barriers
- 6.0%No health insurance
- 15.3%Frequent mental distress
- 24.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Commerce
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from West Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 7.9% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153011028
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153011028?
Census tract 19153011028 in the Commerce neighborhood scores 2.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153011028?
Median gross rent is $1,031/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 40% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153011028?
6.3% of residents in tract 19153011028 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,163.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153011028?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 63th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 73th, minority 32th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 19153011028 considered part of Commerce?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153011028 fall within Commerce (neighborhood centroid within 1.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153011028?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 382 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153011028 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.00% of renter households, peaking at 10.0% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153011028 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153011028 compare to West Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153011028 scores 2.4/10, right in line with the parent city of West Des Moines at 2.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from West Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153011028 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in West Des Moines
Top eight tracts in West Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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