Richmond Eviction Risk: Lower

The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Average gross rent is $1,197, 31% above the Richmond average.

The voucher gap is 26.8%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 2/10. Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10.

The severe-burden share is 15%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The poverty rate is 19%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

On the national scale it lands near the 35th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 25% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. Social vulnerability reads 4.2/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

It tracks the Madison County average of 3.9 closely. Annual rent works out to 20% of average household income of $71,808.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.