Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Fairknoll Eviction Risk: Moderate , Colesville
Tract 24031701415 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 8,350 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
With a score of 5.8/10, tract 24031701415 in the Fairknoll area of Colesville, MD reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 8,350. 40% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 7%
Owners 86%
Tract context
Occupied units2,566
Renter share14.3%
SVI overall0.36
Poverty rate5.5%
Median income$111,795
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
59
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Colesville and the region
Centroid at 39.0843, -76.9895 · click any tract to drill in
Why Fairknoll scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Colesville
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
5.5% poverty · this tract
1.4
Supply constraint
$1,372 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Colesville
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Colesville
3.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Colesville
6.4
How Fairknoll compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 36
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 41%Socioeconomic
- 65%Household composition
- 83%Racial/ethnic minority
- 10%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.7%Housing insecurity
- 6.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.2%Food insecurity
- 8.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.6%Transit barriers
- 8.7%No health insurance
- 12.0%Frequent mental distress
- 23.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Fairknoll
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 9.8/10. On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 9.6/10.
Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Average gross rent is $1,372, 28% below the Colesville average. That is riskier than roughly 76% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Only 14% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 4.3/10.
Against average income of $111,795, annual rent is just 15%. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured.
Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. 50% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 24031701415
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031701415?
Census tract 24031701415 in the Fairknoll neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 24031701415?
Median gross rent is $1,372/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 24031701415?
5.5% of residents in tract 24031701415 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 8,350.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 24031701415?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 36th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 41th, household 65th, minority 83th, housing 10th.
Q5
Is tract 24031701415 considered part of Fairknoll?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031701415 fall within Fairknoll (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 24031701415 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 24031701415 compare to Colesville overall?
Tract 24031701415 scores 5.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Colesville at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Colesville; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Colesville
Top eight tracts in Colesville ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related