Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #6,330 of 84,120 nationally
Greencastle Manor Eviction Risk: High , Fairland
Tract 24031701417 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 6,459 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
With a score of 8.3/10, tract 24031701417 in the Greencastle Manor area of Fairland, MD reads high for landlord eviction risk. The score leans hardest on court filing pressure at 9.8/10.
Risk score
8.3
High
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 29%
Owners 27%
Tract context
Occupied units2,751
Renter share73.2%
SVI overall0.72
Poverty rate14.3%
Median income$78,427
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
33
th percentile
Low
Within county
96
th percentile
Very High
Within state
99
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Fairland and the region
Centroid at 39.0770, -76.9382 · click any tract to drill in
Why Greencastle Manor scores 8.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Fairland
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
14.3% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,872 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Fairland
8.2
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Fairland
9.3
Housing court bias
Inherited from Fairland
6.7
How Greencastle Manor compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 72
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 84%Household composition
- 93%Racial/ethnic minority
- 44%Housing & transportation
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 20.1%Housing insecurity
- 12.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 22.6%Food insecurity
- 18.4%SNAP enrollment
- 11.0%Transit barriers
- 10.4%No health insurance
- 16.0%Frequent mental distress
- 24.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Greencastle Manor
Severe burden reaches 29%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Against Montgomery County at 46.7%, 61% of renters here are cost-burdened. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.3/10.
It sits 2.3 points above the Montgomery County average of 6.0. 73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10.
That is riskier than roughly 92% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Statewide the MD average is 5.5, so this tract runs 2.8 points hotter. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Average gross rent is $1,872, close to the Fairland average.
Annual rent works out to 29% of average household income of $78,427.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 24031701417
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031701417?
Census tract 24031701417 in the Greencastle Manor neighborhood scores 8.3/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 24031701417?
Median gross rent is $1,872/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 61% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 24031701417?
14.3% of residents in tract 24031701417 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,459.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 24031701417?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 72th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 84th, minority 93th, housing 44th.
Q5
Is tract 24031701417 considered part of Greencastle Manor?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031701417 fall within Greencastle Manor (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 24031701417 struggle to pay rent?
About 20.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 24031701417 compare to Fairland overall?
Tract 24031701417 scores 8.3/10, higher than the parent city of Fairland at 6.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Fairland eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Fairland
Top eight tracts in Fairland ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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