Joseph Berry Sub Eviction Risk: Elevated , Detroit

What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 9.7/10. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. SNAP participation runs 35.4% against 15.2% nationally.

Annualized rent equals 39% of average household income of $23,052, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. At $742 a month, rents run 31% under what the rest of Detroit commands.

73% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. The poverty rate is 30%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Against the Wayne County average of 4.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.4 points.

Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 2/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.