Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #28,017 of 84,120 nationally
Conway Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123031802 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,094 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
How risky is the Conway neighborhood of St. Paul for landlords? Census tract 27123031802 scores 6.4/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 85% of US census tracts.
About 46% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 1% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,472 a month against an average household income of $71,030 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 24% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
4.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 76%
Tract context
Occupied units1,467
Renter share24.3%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate9.0%
Median income$71,030
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
37
th percentile
Low
Within county
62
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
77
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9708, -93.0134 · click any tract to drill in
Why Conway scores 4.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
9.0% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,472 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Conway compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 73%Socioeconomic
- 69%Household composition
- 72%Racial/ethnic minority
- 76%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 31%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 212Total filings over 7 yrs
- 7.73%Avg annual filing rate
- 10.5%Peak (2015)
- 44Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 38% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 199Total filings 2020-21
- 2.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.5Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.02×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Conway. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 14.3%Housing insecurity
- 8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.1%Food insecurity
- 12.9%SNAP enrollment
- 10.9%Transit barriers
- 10.8%No health insurance
- 17.7%Frequent mental distress
- 29.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Conway
The score leans hardest on rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
The tract is White and Asian and ranks around the 79th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 212 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 7.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 10.5% of renter households in 2015.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123031802
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031802?
Census tract 27123031802 in the Conway neighborhood scores 4.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123031802?
Median gross rent is $1,472/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031802?
9.0% of residents in tract 27123031802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,094.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031802?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 69th, minority 72th, housing 76th.
Q5
Is tract 27123031802 considered part of Conway?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031802 fall within Conway (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031802?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 212 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.73% of renter households, peaking at 10.5% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123031802 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.02× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123031802 struggle to pay rent?
About 14.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123031802 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123031802 scores 4.8/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123031802 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Eastview
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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