Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally

Conway Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

Tract 27123031802 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,094 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi

27123031802 is a census tract in the Conway area of St. Paul, MN. It scores 6.5/10 for landlords. It is home to 4,094 residents. The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10.

Risk score

6.5

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 13% Owners 76%

Tract context

Occupied units1,467

Renter share24.3%

SVI overall0.79

Poverty rate9.0%

Median income$71,030

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across St. Paul and the region

Centroid at 44.9708, -93.0134 · click any tract to drill in

Why Conway scores 6.5

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from St. Paul

9.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.3

State political climate

Minnesota legislature & governorship

4.3

Economic stress

9.0% poverty · this tract

2.2

Supply constraint

$1,472 rent vs county FMR

3.7

Rent control risk

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from St. Paul

7.5

How Conway compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 79

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

73%Socioeconomic
69%Household composition
72%Racial/ethnic minority
76%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

0%Grade A
0%Grade B
31%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

212Total filings over 7 yrs
7.73%Avg annual filing rate
10.5%Peak (2015)
44Filings in 2015 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2009 to 2015

Filings climbed 38% over the past 7 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

199Total filings 2020-21
2.6Avg monthly (observed)
2.5Pre-pandemic baseline
1.02×Ratio to baseline

Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01

Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Conway. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

14.3%Housing insecurity
8.2%Utility-shutoff threat
20.1%Food insecurity
12.9%SNAP enrollment
10.9%Transit barriers
10.8%No health insurance
17.7%Frequent mental distress
29.7%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Conway

Running hot, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. It sits 0.9 points above the Ramsey County average of 5.6.

The filing record is not thin: 212 evictions over 7 years of observation. At $1,472 a month, rents run 15% over what the rest of St. Paul commands.

The worst year on record was 2015, when 10.5% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

In a typical year about 7.7% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 82nd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

At 24% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.1/10. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 2.0 points hotter.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured. Rent takes 30% or more of income for 46% of renters.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 27123031802

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031802?

Census tract 27123031802 in the Conway neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 27123031802?

Median gross rent is $1,472/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031802?

9.0% of residents in tract 27123031802 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,094.

How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031802?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 73th, household 69th, minority 72th, housing 76th.

Is tract 27123031802 considered part of Conway?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031802 fall within Conway (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031802?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 212 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031802 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.73% of renter households, peaking at 10.5% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

Did eviction filings in tract 27123031802 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 1.02× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.

What share of households in tract 27123031802 struggle to pay rent?

About 14.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 27123031802 compare to St. Paul overall?

Tract 27123031802 scores 6.5/10, right in line with the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Q10

Was tract 27123031802 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul

Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org