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Neighborhood · St. Paul, MN

Conway Eviction Risk: Elevated

2 census tracts · pop 8,781 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.9/10 · range 6.5–7.3

Conway spans 2 census tracts of St. Paul, MN, population 8,781. Scored across those inputs it reaches 6.9/10, placing it in the Elevated tier. Against a St. Paul baseline of 30.0%, 54% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.

What pushes the score up most is rent-regulation exposure at 8.5/10. 24% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.

Running hot is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. Court records carry 397 eviction filings across its 2 observed tracts. On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7.5/10.

Filing activity peaked in 2015 at 10.5% of renter households. At $1,360 a month, rents sit 6% over what the rest of St. Paul commands. Among the 23 mapped neighborhoods of St. Paul, it ranks #14 by risk, the middle third.

Judgments average 2.9% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are Iris Park and Eastview. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

The area figure travels well to individual addresses here, though the per-tract table below still carries the detail. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.

Risk score
6.9
Elevated
2 tracts · population-weighted
Conway vs St. Paul How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
% of income on rent
53.6% +79%
St. Paul: 30.0%
Average gross rent
$1,360 +6%
St. Paul: $1,281
Average HH income
$68,640 -10%
St. Paul: $76,411
Poverty rate
12.2% -23%
St. Paul: 15.8%
Renter share
36.3% -23%
St. Paul: 47.1%
Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Conway and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 2 tracts span score 6.5–7.3

Why Conway scores 6.9

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly
State political climate
legislature & governorship · Range 4.3–4.3 across tracts
4.3
Regional political climate
County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 7.3–7.3 across tracts
7.3
Local political climate
Parent city governance · Range 9.0–9.0 across tracts
9.0
Rent control risk
54% of income on rent · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
36% renter households · Range 8.5–8.5 across tracts
8.5
Housing court bias
County bench composition · Range 7.5–7.5 across tracts
7.5
Economic stress
12.2% below poverty line · Range 2.2–3.7 across tracts
3.0
Supply constraint
Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 2.5–3.7 across tracts
3.1
Risk score comparison

Conway vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Conway score vs. parent city, state, U.S.6.9ConwayNeighborhood6.5Parent cityhost city4.5Stateavg in state5.1U.S.national avgU.S. avg = 5.0
Census tracts

2 tracts in Conway

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract Score Pop % over 30% on rent Average rent
27123034702 7.3 4,687 60% $1,262
27123031802 6.5 4,094 46% $1,472
Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 81

Pop-weighted across 2 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 77%ile
Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden
Household characteristics 75%ile
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority 74%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport 73%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Conway

Aggregated across 2 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 397Total filings (sum)
  • 5.94%Avg annual filing rate
  • 10.5%Peak year (2015)
  • 6.23%Latest filed (2015)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 401Total filings 2020-21
  • 2.6Avg monthly observed
  • 1.9Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 1.48×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).

CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted

Eviction-adjacent indicators in Conway

Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.

Frequently asked

About Conway

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for Conway?

Conway scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2

How does Conway compare to St. Paul overall?

Conway scores 0.4 points higher than St. Paul overall (6.5/10). Renters spend 54% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,360 vs $1,281.
Q3

What is the average rent in Conway?

Average gross rent in Conway is $1,360/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 54% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4

What percentage of Conway residents are renters?

36% of Conway households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in St. Paul). The neighborhood has 8,781 residents.
Q5

Is Conway a high social-vulnerability area?

Conway sits in the 81st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (highly vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6

Which tracts in Conway have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Conway is census tract 27123034702 (score 7.3/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 6.5 to 7.3, a spread of 0.8 points.
Q7

How safe is Conway for landlords?

Conway carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.9/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Paul as a whole (6.5/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8

What is the demographic breakdown of Conway?

Conway has 8,147 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (38.8%), Asian (non-Hispanic) (29.2%), Hispanic / Latino (14.6%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Conway

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside St. Paul

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Conway.

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