Within neighborhood
83
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #8,653 of 84,120 nationally
Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul
Tract 27123031000 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,434 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 27123031000 covers part of the Payne - Phalen area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 7.9/10 on landlord eviction risk. The dominant input is local political climate at 9/10.
Risk score
7.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 25%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 48%
Tract context
Occupied units1,429
Renter share52.1%
SVI overall0.88
Poverty rate27.4%
Median income$69,230
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
98
th percentile
Very High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9762, -93.0708 · click any tract to drill in
Why Payne - Phalen scores 7.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
27.4% poverty · this tract
6.9
Supply constraint
$1,298 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Payne - Phalen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 88
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 95%Socioeconomic
- 57%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 77%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 1%Grade A
- 33%Grade B
- 66%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 433Total filings over 7 yrs
- 7.71%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.3%Peak (2009)
- 59Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 19% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 224Total filings 2020-21
- 2.9Avg monthly (observed)
- 4.0Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.74×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Payne - Phalen. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 21.1%Housing insecurity
- 12.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 32.8%Food insecurity
- 24.0%SNAP enrollment
- 16.4%Transit barriers
- 14.7%No health insurance
- 19.9%Frequent mental distress
- 35.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Payne - Phalen
Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.3 points. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. The severe-burden share is 20%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. Food insecurity runs 32.8% against 17.8% nationally.
The poverty rate is 27%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. SNAP participation runs 24.0% against 15.2% nationally.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 433 filings here across 7 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2009, when 11.3% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 7.7% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #8,653 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123031000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123031000?
Census tract 27123031000 in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood scores 7.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123031000?
Median gross rent is $1,298/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 49% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123031000?
27.4% of residents in tract 27123031000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,434.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123031000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 88th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 95th, household 57th, minority 79th, housing 77th.
Q5
Is tract 27123031000 considered part of Payne - Phalen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123031000 fall within Payne - Phalen (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123031000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 433 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123031000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.71% of renter households, peaking at 11.3% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123031000 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.74× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123031000 struggle to pay rent?
About 21.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123031000 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123031000 scores 7.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123031000 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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