Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #18,240 of 84,120 nationally
Dayton's Bluff Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123034400 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,185 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Census tract 27123034400 sits in Dayton's Bluff in St. Paul, Minnesota eviction laws, and carries an eviction-risk score of 6.5/10. That is riskier than about 87% of US census tracts.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 42% of renter households, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,410 monthly, set against $73,750 in average yearly household income, roughly 23% of income at the averages. Renters make up 49% of occupied homes.
Risk score
5.5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 28%
Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units854
Renter share49.1%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate19.0%
Median income$73,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
64
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
79
th percentile
High
Within state
88
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9502, -93.0702 · click any tract to drill in
Why Dayton's Bluff scores 5.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
19.0% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$1,410 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Dayton's Bluff compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 75
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 72%Socioeconomic
- 71%Household composition
- 71%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 38%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 406Total filings over 7 yrs
- 12.92%Avg annual filing rate
- 13.2%Peak (2013)
- 54Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 129Total filings 2020-21
- 1.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 3.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.49×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Dayton's Bluff. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 15.0%Housing insecurity
- 9.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 20.3%Food insecurity
- 14.3%SNAP enrollment
- 11.7%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 18.7%Frequent mental distress
- 29.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Dayton's Bluff
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.49x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, well below the pre-pandemic norm, the signature of an eviction moratorium at work.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of C ("Declining"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123034400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123034400?
Census tract 27123034400 in the Dayton's Bluff neighborhood scores 5.5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123034400?
Median gross rent is $1,410/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123034400?
19.0% of residents in tract 27123034400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,185.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123034400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 71th, minority 71th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 27123034400 considered part of Dayton's Bluff?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123034400 fall within Dayton's Bluff (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123034400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 406 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123034400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.92% of renter households, peaking at 13.2% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123034400 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.49× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123034400 struggle to pay rent?
About 15.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123034400 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123034400 scores 5.5/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123034400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Eastview
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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