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Neighborhood · Ranked #10,727 of 84,120 nationally

Dayton's Bluff Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

Tract 27123034400 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 2,185 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi

27123034400 is a census tract in the Dayton's Bluff area of St. Paul, MN. It scores 7.4/10 for landlords. It is home to 2,185 residents. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 9/10.

Risk score
7.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 28% Owners 51%
Tract context
Occupied units854
Renter share49.1%
SVI overall0.75
Poverty rate19.0%
Median income$73,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Dayton's Bluff
Very Low
Within parent city
64 th percentile
Rank, 64th percentileLowHigh
#31 of 85 tracts In St. Paul
Elevated
Within county
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#30 of 143 tracts In Ramsey County
High
Within state
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#92 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across St. Paul and the region

Centroid at 44.9502, -93.0702 · click any tract to drill in

Why Dayton's Bluff scores 7.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
19.0% poverty · this tract
4.8
Supply constraint
$1,410 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5

How Dayton's Bluff compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Dayton's Bluff risk score vs. parent city / county / state7.4This tracttract 0344006.5St. Paulparent city5.6Countyavg tract in county4.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 75

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 406Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 12.92%Avg annual filing rate
  • 13.2%Peak (2013)
  • 54Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2009 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 27123034400
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

  • 129Total filings 2020-21
  • 1.7Avg monthly (observed)
  • 3.4Pre-pandemic baseline
  • 0.49×Ratio to baseline
Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01
Monthly eviction filings vs pre-pandemic baseline

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Dayton's Bluff. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Dayton's Bluff

On the high side, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10. It sits 1.8 points above the Ramsey County average of 5.6. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10.

Severe burden reaches 16%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against Ramsey County at 47.3%, 42% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 406 filings here across 7 tracked years. At $1,410 a month, rents run 10% over what the rest of St. Paul commands.

The worst year on record was 2013, when 13.2% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 12.9% of renter households face a filing.

Nationally it ranks #10,727 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.8/10. Statewide the MN average is 4.5, so this tract runs 2.9 points hotter.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 27123034400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123034400?

Census tract 27123034400 in the Dayton's Bluff neighborhood scores 7.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27123034400?

Median gross rent is $1,410/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27123034400?

19.0% of residents in tract 27123034400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,185.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27123034400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 75th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 72th, household 71th, minority 71th, housing 64th.
Q5

Is tract 27123034400 considered part of Dayton's Bluff?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123034400 fall within Dayton's Bluff (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123034400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 406 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123034400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.92% of renter households, peaking at 13.2% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

Did eviction filings in tract 27123034400 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.49× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8

What share of households in tract 27123034400 struggle to pay rent?

About 15.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9

How does tract 27123034400 compare to St. Paul overall?

Tract 27123034400 scores 7.4/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10

Was tract 27123034400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul

Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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