Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #23,554 of 84,120 nationally
Shadow Falls Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123034900 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 3,746 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Tract 27123034900 covers the Shadow Falls neighborhood of St. Paul in Minnesota. Home to 3,746 residents, it scores 6.7/10 on landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 90th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
About 70% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 29% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,166 a month while the average household earns $100,333 a year, roughly 14% of income at the averages. About 42% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 58%
Tract context
Occupied units1,030
Renter share41.8%
SVI overall0.13
Poverty rate19.5%
Median income$100,333
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
52
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9407, -93.1875 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shadow Falls scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
19.5% poverty · this tract
4.9
Supply constraint
$1,166 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Shadow Falls compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 13
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 32%Socioeconomic
- 0%Household composition
- 29%Racial/ethnic minority
- 60%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 88%Grade A
- 12%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 21Total filings over 7 yrs
- 0.51%Avg annual filing rate
- 1.4%Peak (2010)
- 3Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 50% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 11Total filings 2020-21
- 0.1Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.64×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Shadow Falls. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.3%Housing insecurity
- 5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.3%Food insecurity
- 7.9%SNAP enrollment
- 10.3%Transit barriers
- 6.4%No health insurance
- 22.1%Frequent mental distress
- 27.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shadow Falls
The heaviest input here is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 21 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 0.5% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 1.4% of renter households in 2010.
In CDC survey modeling, about 9.3% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 5.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123034900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123034900?
Census tract 27123034900 in the Shadow Falls neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123034900?
Median gross rent is $1,166/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123034900?
19.5% of residents in tract 27123034900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,746.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123034900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 0th, minority 29th, housing 60th.
Q5
Is tract 27123034900 considered part of Shadow Falls?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123034900 fall within Shadow Falls (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123034900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123034900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.51% of renter households, peaking at 1.4% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123034900 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.64× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123034900 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123034900 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123034900 scores 5.1/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123034900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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