Neighborhood · Ranked #13,812 of 84,120 nationally

Shadow Falls Eviction Risk: Elevated , St. Paul

Tract 27123034900 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 3,746 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Census tract 27123034900 covers part of the Shadow Falls area of St. Paul, MN, and scores 6.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. around two-thirds of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Ramsey County average of 47.3%.

Risk score

6.8

Elevated

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 29% Stable renters 13% Owners 58%

Tract context

Occupied units1,030

Renter share41.8%

SVI overall0.13

Poverty rate19.5%

Median income$100,333

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across St. Paul and the region

Centroid at 44.9407, -93.1875 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shadow Falls scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from St. Paul

9.0

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

7.3

State political climate

Minnesota legislature & governorship

4.3

Economic stress

19.5% poverty · this tract

4.9

Supply constraint

$1,166 rent vs county FMR

1.9

Rent control risk

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

7.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from St. Paul

8.5

Housing court bias

Inherited from St. Paul

7.5

How Shadow Falls compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 13

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

32%Socioeconomic
0%Household composition
29%Racial/ethnic minority
60%Housing & transportation

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: A: Best

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

88%Grade A
12%Grade B
0%Grade C
0%Grade D · redlined

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.¹

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

21Total filings over 7 yrs
0.51%Avg annual filing rate
1.4%Peak (2010)
3Filings in 2015 (latest validated)

Filings by year 2009 to 2015

Filings climbed 50% over the past 7 months.

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

11Total filings 2020-21
0.1Avg monthly (observed)
0.2Pre-pandemic baseline
0.64×Ratio to baseline

Monthly filings 2020–2021 2020-01-01 to 2026-05-01

Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shadow Falls. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

9.3%Housing insecurity
5.7%Utility-shutoff threat
13.3%Food insecurity
7.9%SNAP enrollment
10.3%Transit barriers
6.4%No health insurance
22.1%Frequent mental distress
27.6%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shadow Falls

29% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. The score leans hardest on local political climate at 9/10. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.5/10.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.5/10. Against the Ramsey County average of 5.6, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.2 points.

The poverty rate is 20%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Court records carry 21 eviction filings across 7 observed years.

SNAP participation runs 7.9% against 15.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2010, when 1.4% of renter households were served.

At $1,166 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of St. Paul commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground A ("Best"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 0.5% of renter households face a filing.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 27123034900

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123034900?

Census tract 27123034900 in the Shadow Falls neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 27123034900?

Median gross rent is $1,166/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 70% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 27123034900?

19.5% of residents in tract 27123034900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,746.

How socially vulnerable is tract 27123034900?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 13th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 32th, household 0th, minority 29th, housing 60th.

Is tract 27123034900 considered part of Shadow Falls?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123034900 fall within Shadow Falls (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123034900?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 21 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123034900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 0.51% of renter households, peaking at 1.4% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.

Did eviction filings in tract 27123034900 drop during COVID?

Pandemic-era filings ran 0.64× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.

What share of households in tract 27123034900 struggle to pay rent?

About 9.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 5.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 27123034900 compare to St. Paul overall?

Tract 27123034900 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Q10

Was tract 27123034900 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul

Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Eviction Lab tract-level court records (2000-2018) and Eviction Tracking System, Princeton University. Open Data Commons Attribution license. evictionlab.org