2 census tracts · pop 5,519 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 6.4/10
· range 5.7–6.8
Shadow Falls is a 2-tract neighborhood of St. Paul, MN, population 5,519. The Eviction Risk Score is 6.4/10, in the Elevated tier. Against a St. Paul baseline of 30.0%, 51% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line.
What pushes the score up most is rent-regulation exposure at 8.5/10. Sitting well above the midpoint is tenant-organizing strength at 8.5/10. 21% are severely burdened, paying half their income or more in rent. That cohort has no absorption capacity for an unexpected bill, and it is where non-payment filings originate.
On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.6/10. Scores across the 2 constituent tracts range from 5.7 to 6.8. A 1.1-point internal spread means block-level underwriting beats area-level here.
Court records for this tract carry 21 eviction filings. The poverty rate is 17%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. SNAP participation is 5.8% of households versus 15.2% nationally.
At $1,111 a month, rents sit 13% under what the rest of St. Paul commands. The worst year on record was 2010, when filings touched 1.4% of renter households.
5.2% of adults carry no health insurance against 11.3% nationally, a common route into sudden unpayable debt. The most recent observed rate, 0.5% in 2015, is well off that peak.
Underwrite the address, not the area: with 1.1 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.
Risk score
6.4
Elevated
2 tracts · population-weighted
Shadow Falls vs St. PaulHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority23%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport61%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Shadow Falls
Aggregated across 1 validated constituent tract. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
21Total filings (sum)
0.51%Avg annual filing rate
1.4%Peak year (2010)
0.49%Latest filed (2015)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
31Total filings 2020-21
0.2Avg monthly observed
0.2Pre-pandemic baseline
0.84×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN).
CDC PLACES 2023 · pop-weighted
Eviction-adjacent indicators in Shadow Falls
Average across all constituent tracts, population-weighted. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh) crude prevalence.
8.1%Housing insecurity
5.0%Utility shutoff threat
11.1%Food insecurity
6.6%SNAP enrollment
5.6%No health insurance
25.7%Any disability
Frequently asked
About Shadow Falls
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Shadow Falls?
Shadow Falls scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier) across 2 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Shadow Falls compare to St. Paul overall?
Shadow Falls scores 0.1 points lower than St. Paul overall (6.5/10). Renters spend 51% of income on rent vs 30% citywide. Average rent: $1,111 vs $1,281.
Q3
What is the average rent in Shadow Falls?
Average gross rent in Shadow Falls is $1,111/month (pop-weighted across 2 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 51% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Shadow Falls residents are renters?
43% of Shadow Falls households are renter-occupied (vs 47% in St. Paul). The neighborhood has 5,519 residents.
Q5
Is Shadow Falls a high social-vulnerability area?
Shadow Falls sits in the 12th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (low vulnerability). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Shadow Falls have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Shadow Falls is census tract 27123034900 (score 6.8/10). Across the 2 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 5.7 to 6.8, a spread of 1.1 points.
Q7
How safe is Shadow Falls for landlords?
Shadow Falls carries a elevated-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (6.4/10). Pop-weighted across 2 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Paul as a whole (6.5/10), this neighborhood is in line with the citywide level.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Shadow Falls?
Shadow Falls has 5,893 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (84%), Hispanic / Latino (6.7%), Other / Multiracial (4.1%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
