Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #37,643 of 84,120 nationally
Shadow Falls Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123043002 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 1,773 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 27123043002, home to 1,773 residents in the Shadow Falls area of St. Paul, scores 5.2/10 for landlord eviction risk. It lands near the 46th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
12% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 5% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $994 a month while the average household earns $112,500 a year, roughly 11% of income at the averages. About 47% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
4.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 5%
Stable renters 41%
Owners 54%
Tract context
Occupied units880
Renter share46.7%
SVI overall0.09
Poverty rate10.1%
Median income$112,500
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
12
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9475, -93.1984 · click any tract to drill in
Why Shadow Falls scores 4.2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
10.1% poverty · this tract
2.5
Supply constraint
$994 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Shadow Falls compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 9
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 10%Socioeconomic
- 2%Household composition
- 11%Racial/ethnic minority
- 63%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 64%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 1%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 20Total filings 2020-21
- 0.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.2Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.27×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Shadow Falls. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 5.5%Housing insecurity
- 3.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 6.4%Food insecurity
- 3.7%SNAP enrollment
- 4.9%Transit barriers
- 3.9%No health insurance
- 14.0%Frequent mental distress
- 21.8%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Shadow Falls
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and in line with the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 1.27x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, roughly back to the pre-pandemic baseline.
In CDC survey modeling, about 5.5% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.5% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123043002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123043002?
Census tract 27123043002 in the Shadow Falls neighborhood scores 4.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123043002?
Median gross rent is $994/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 12% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123043002?
10.1% of residents in tract 27123043002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,773.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123043002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 9th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 10th, household 2th, minority 11th, housing 63th.
Q5
Is tract 27123043002 considered part of Shadow Falls?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123043002 fall within Shadow Falls (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 27123043002 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.27× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings returned near baseline. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q7
What share of households in tract 27123043002 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 27123043002 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123043002 scores 4.2/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 27123043002 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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